Sunday, 18 October 2009

A FEW PREDICTIONS ON THE FUTURE OF TV

A couple of weeks ago the IAB announced that digital media spend overtook TV spend for the first time in the UK. But the lines are so blurred its a funny division to make these days, but satisfying none the less. In a recent issue of Media Week, I and a few others were asked to make some predictions about the media landscape in 2014 in a piece called, 2014: a media odyssey.

Here is the section on TV predictions:

The convergence of the TV and internet will change all the traditional broadcast rules. Suranga Chandratillake, founder of video search engine Blinkx, says: "Viewers won't depend on a schedule and there will be no such thing as prime time."

Chandratillake envisions a time when TV shows will be pre-programmed specifically for each viewer. He says: "It might be news tailored to the industry you work in or the weather forecast for your exact location. For light relief, your TV will find you some tennis, as it knows you like this sport from your previous viewing habits. On your commute to work, you might start watching the latest episode of your favourite soap on a mobile device, but pause it so you can watch the rest on your way home."

Nigel Walley, managing director of consultancy Decipher, forecasts that traditional broadcast will drop to about 60% of viewing time. He says: "Broadcasters will respond to this trend by making more programmes that demand to be viewed live by integrating their video-on-demand content into the broadcast stream and by building deeper relationships with their users through data, so they can do things like reward loyalty."

Tony Effik, chief strategy officer at Publicis Modem, predicts that Apple, Microsoft and Google will become significant TV players. He says: "Apple will launch an improved version of Apple TV linked to iTunes, YouTube and Hulu, and Google will work with Sky and Apple to offer pay-per-click models for the TV advertising. Pay-per-click will become hugely successful and will force change in TV business models."

Effik also forecasts better targeting based on Google technology, which will give advertisers viewing data on each household, as well as click data on advertising. He adds: "Targeting and pricing of advertising will be based on individual profiles, with some viewers worth more."

In addition, consumers will access sites such as Flickr and YouTube via the TV, and will watch with the constant accompaniment of a Twitter-type feed.

Damian Ryan, head of digital at consultancy Results International, suggests this could be called "Twelevision", enabling viewers to interact around content. He says: "There will also be the option for viewers to take control of broadcast under certain moderated conditions."

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