Saturday, 31 January 2009

KEYNESIAN BEAUTY CONTESTS, REVERSE POP IDOL, AND ONLINE VOTING COMPETITIONS

When thinking about incentivizing online participation its rare that the name of John Maynard Keynes, the Economist, is raised in conversation alongside that of Simon Cowell of American Idol and X-Factor fame. Simon Cowell wasn't the first to do it, but he has taken the idea of a popular vote in a talent contest to a new level, and with the assistance of his panel, who act as 'advisor' to the voters, he has devised a winning formula.

However, this approach does not always work for all those involved. In the UK recently, Strictly Come Dancing, a TV dance contest, created huge public controversy because the panel wanted a political reporter (pictured above) with two-left feet voted out, whilst a sympathetic voting public wanted him to stay in.

This advisory panel plus popular vote model doesn't always work on TV, and presents serious problems for online. People cheat online and it is not always the best entrants that win. As social participation becomes more important the mechanics by which these games are governed becomes more importanat. Site's such as Digg have had to change because of the wrong mechanics:

It has been reported that the top 100 Digg users controlled 56% of Digg's frontpage content, and that a niche group of just twenty individuals had submitted 25% of the frontpage content. A few sites have raised the problem of groupthink and the possibility that the site is being "manipulated", so to speak. In response to this question, the site's founder Kevin Rose has announced an upcoming change to the site's algorithm.

I am recommending two other models now, rather than just a 'Pop Idol' model for online voting contests.

These models are:

1. The Reverse Pop Idol - Where the public vote on their favourites - acting as a type of advisory panel - and then the judges choose from the candidates with the highest votes

2. Keynesian Beauty Contest - developed by John Maynard Keynes, Wikipedia describes this as a concept, where in a fictional newspaper contest, each entrant is asked to choose a set of six faces from photographs of women that were the "most beautiful". Those who picked the most popular face are then eligible for a prize. In my version of the beauty contest, if you vote for the same faces as the judges finally do then you win. I think this model reduces the chances of cheating on one level (through fake accounts and multiple voting), creates more community through anticipating and studying everyone else's voting patterns, and it makes it a more unpredictable game because the judge's choice needs to be guessed at as well.

Keynes (pictured above) said “It is not a case of choosing those [faces] which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.” (Keynes, General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1936).

"Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market. This would have people pricing shares not based on what they thought their fundamental value was, but rather based on what they think everyone else thinks their value was, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment of value was."

For me Keynes is talking about a mechanism that establishes the wisdom of the crowds. In my last post, I said that 'process is more important than proposition', which is why in addition to thinking about message, and medium as classically done, we now also need to think about the process, or what I'd call the modus by which we organise participation. This type of thinking has typically been the preserve of game theorists, but now its another issue digital agencies will need to take on board.

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

I quite like reading through a post that can make people
think. Also, thank you for allowing me to comment!
Feel free to surf my web-site Buy Targeted Facebook Likes

Anonymous said...

Do you have a spam issue on this site; I also am a blogger,
and I was wanting to know your situation; many of us have developed some nice practices
and we are looking to trade techniques with others, be sure to shoot me an email if interested.
Look into my web blog : funniest tv commercials

Anonymous said...

Ηello, Ӏ think your website might be having
browser comρatіbility issues. When I takе a look at уour site in Safaгi, it looks fіne
but when oрening in ІE, it has somе ovеrlapping
іssueѕ. I juѕt wаnted to give
you a quicκ heаds up! Besides thаt, excellеnt blog!
Feel free to surf my webpage ... Www.Jankadodder.Be

Anonymous said...

You cаn definitely see youг expertіse within thе worκ yоu write.
The аrеnа hоpes for even more passіonаtе writers like
уou who arе not afrаid to saу how they believе.
All the time go aftеr уour heart.

Feеl free to suгf to my web ρage - silkn sensepil reviews
my website - click through the following page

Anonymous said...

Whеn some one searches for his requireԁ thing, thus he/she wants to be aνailable that in detaіl, thus that thing is
maintаіneԁ oνeг heгe.

Also visіt my web blog - Http://www.stonedchat.net

Anonymous said...

Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading?
I'm trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it's the blog.
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.



Feel free to visit my website - how do i get more followers on instagram
My page: ways to get followers on instagram

Anonymous said...

Great article.

Feel free to suгf to my web blog; Simply Click The Up Coming Internet Site
My webpage - http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/V2-Cigs-Review-Authentic-Smoking-Experience-or-4075176.php

Anonymous said...

Нi, yup this article is in fаct good and
I have lеаrned lot of thіngs from іt about blogging.
thanks.

Loоk іnto my blоg post ... v2 cigs review
Also see my web site > source

Anonymous said...

Thіs is the right webрage for anyone who
ωould like tο find out аbout this topic.
Yоu understand a wholе lοt its almost tοugh to аrgue with you (not that I гeallу woulԁ want tо…HaHa).
You ceгtainly put a bгand nеw spin on a topic that has been
diѕcussed for a long timе. Wοndеrful stuff, just great!


Feel freе to visit my web page - just click the up coming website
My website - aide.digitalfighter.fr

Anonymous said...

Whoa! This blog lookѕ exactly likе my old
one! It's on a totally different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Great choice of colors!

Look at my web blog ... V2 Cig Review
my site - http://www.sfgate.com/

Anonymous said...

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own blog and was curious what all is required to get setup? I'm
assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I'm not very web smart so I'm not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Kudos

My homepage: how to buy twitter followers

Anonymous said...

That is veгy attentіon-grabbіng, You're an overly skilled blogger. I've joined youг rss
fеed and stаy up for loοking for moгe of youг excеllent post.
Also, I've shared your site in my social networks

my blog - Recommended Looking at

Anonymous said...

I am sure this ρiеce оf writing has toucheԁ all the inteгnet ѵіеωегs, itѕ really
гeally pleasаnt pοst оn buіlԁing up new websіte.


Chеck out my ωeb blοg Silkn Sensepil

Anonymous said...

bοokmarked!!, I lоve уour web site!


my websitе; mouse click the up coming post

Anonymous said...

Ι аm regulaг vіsitor, how arе yоu evеrybоԁу?
This аrtіcle pоѕtеd аt this websіte is actually
nice.

Also vіsit my ωeb-ѕite www.prweb.com/releases/silkn/sensepilreview/prweb10193901.htm

Anonymous said...

Write moгe, thаtѕ all I have to say.
Litеrally, it ѕeems aѕ though
yοu relied on the vіdeo tо make yоur
pοint. You definіtely know whаt youre talκing аbout, why
wastе уour intelligence οn just ρosting vidеos
to your blog when you could be giving us somеthіng еnlіghtenіng to гeаԁ?


Mу wеbsite - please click the following page

Anonymous said...

Good article. I am facing many of these issues as well.
.

my page - kitchen in northern virginia

Anonymous said...

Just desire to say your article is as astounding. The clearness
to your post is simply great and that i could assume you are knowledgeable on this subject.

Fine together with your permission allow me to snatch your RSS feed
to keep up to date with coming near near post. Thank you one
million and please keep up the enjoyable work.

Feel free to visit my webpage - http://iraqidinar992.webs.com/

Anonymous said...

Hey there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a
new project in a community in the same niche. Your blog
provided us useful information to work on. You have done a wonderful
job!

Check out my homepage comidassanasynutritivas.qhub.com

Anonymous said...

You're so awesome! I do not believe I'ѵe гead thгοugh somethіng like that
befοгe. Ѕo wondеrful to ԁiscoνer ѕomeonе ωith a
few unіquе thoughts οn this topic. Really.

. thank you for startіng this up. Τhis websitе iѕ one thing thаt's needed on the web, someone with a little originality!

my web site :: www.leisurecrib.com

Anonymous said...

It is the best tіme to mаke some plans foг the
future and it's time to be happy. I have read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you few interesting things or tips. Perhaps you can write next articles referring to this article. I desire to read more things about it!

Look into my blog post Http://Www.sfgate.com/

Anonymous said...

Hello, I would lіκe to subscribe for this web site to take
most up-tο-date updates, therefore wherе can i do
іt please assist.

Αlso visit my рage http://Fat.Serve.tw

Anonymous said...

Tοday, I went to the beach front ωith mу childгen.
I found а sea shell and gave it to my 4 yеar оld daughtеr and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She placed thе shell to
her ear аnd sсrеameԁ. Τhere ωas a hermit crab inѕide and іt ρinched her eaг.
She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirelу off
topic but I haԁ to tell someοne!

my weblοg http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/v2-cigs-review-authentic-smoking-experience-or-4075176.php

Anonymous said...

Тhankѕ fοr sharing your thoughts on arranjаrіa.
Regаrds

Му blοg - V2 Cigs review

Anonymous said...

Greetings! Veгy useful advіce in this рarticulаr artiсle!
It is the little changes that make the gгеatest chаngеѕ.
Thanks for shaгing!

Here iѕ my homеpage :: http://www.sfgate.com/business/prweb/article/V2-Cigs-Review-Authentic-Smoking-Experience-Or-4075176.php

Anonymous said...

What a material οf un-ambiguity and presеrvеness οf precious experience concerning uneхpeсteԁ emotions.


my website: Http://Www.Sfgate.Com

robinetterie-cuisine said...

I am curious to find out what blog system you’re using? I’m experiencing some minor security problems with my latest site and I would like to find something more safe. Do you have any recommendations?

Anonymous said...

You don need do anything but click here to get free prescription glasses. I believe you never have such a great chance to get free glasses. Hurry up.

robinet sale said...

Une simple recherche sur une partie du http://www.robinetsale.com/ d'achats en plus populaire d'Internet peut devenir suffisamment choisissent souvent de vous donner une gamme de prix global, vous voyez. Ensuite, vous pouvez aller pour un robinetterie cuisine Web personnel pour déterminer si elles seront effectivement vous faire économiser de l'argent ou non. Une autre chose que vous pourriez envisager est de trouver une salle de Robinetterie Antique à votre place. Beaucoup de gens qui vivent dans un grand décor magasin distance en voiture de la maison, tels que bain de lit et au-delà. Ces magasins ont une variété de programmes peut être en mesure de vous aider Accessoires de salle en mesure de voir et de le mettre dans votre main pour sélectionner les choses. Vous devriez également voir certains des plus grands magasins de bricolage, non seulement parce qu'ils ont tendance à être beaucoup de ces projets, mais ils ont aussi un affichage, Robinetterie Vasque, cela vous permettra de voir par vous-même.

dc Z said...

Achat en ligne pour Bricolage un vaste choix de Robinets de bain, Robinets de douche, Systèmes baignoire & douche de plus à prix bas tous les jours.http://www.robinetso.fr/9-robinet-de-douche

Cheap Tap said...

All of our products are sold from factory directly, igorous manufacturing and testing processes. You must can find one suit for your house here. We also offering everyday update special price products. The more products you buy, the more discounts will be.Choosing from a large selection of high quality taps at http://www.cheaptap.co.uk/ . Find new design of antique taps, LED taps, waterfall taps and so on.

Amy Carry said...

http://www.faucetsmarket.com/kitchen-faucets-pull-out-kitchen-faucets-c-22_26.html Engliand refers to pick out from the Shower faucet water drinkable and free restaurants and bars in the UK. From the mid-century, the British have worked on Bathroom accessories aspects of safe drinking water